레이블이 United States Debt Articles인 게시물을 표시합니다. 모든 게시물 표시
레이블이 United States Debt Articles인 게시물을 표시합니다. 모든 게시물 표시

2013년 11월 23일 토요일

About 'debt of the usa'|THE REALITY OF THE DEBT OF USA...! & Other Countries...!







About 'debt of the usa'|THE REALITY OF THE DEBT OF USA...! & Other Countries...!








Interview               granted               to               Bankrate.com,               August               2010               Q.

Why               would               deflation               happen               in               the               United               States?
               A.

For               deflation               to               happen               in               the               USA,               an               unlikely               confluence               of               economic               developments               and               policy               errors               must               occur.

Unemployment               must               resurge               and               reach               levels               of               well               above               15%               on               a               prolonged               and               sustained               basis;               consumption               and,               consequently,               capital               investment               must               collapse;               asset               prices               -               especially               equity               and               residential               real-estate               -               must               crumble;               the               banking               system               must               suffer               a               substantial               contraction;               the               government               must               cut               its               budget               deficit               considerably               and               abruptly;               and               the               Federal               Reserve               must               turn               strict               and               demonetize               the               economy               (bleed               it               dry               by               siphoning               off               liquidity).

None               of               these               six               doomsday               scenarios               is               likely               to               materialize.
               The               USA               is               probably               facing               years               of               low               inflation,               which               has               pernicious               effects               of               its               own,               but               is               not               the               same               as               deflation.
               Q.

How               would               deflation               affect               investment               and               consumption?

I               have               trouble               wrapping               my               head               around               the               concept               that               inflated               dollars               are               worth               more               and               deflated               dollars               are               worth               less,               for               some               reason.
               A.

It               is               the               other               way               around,               according               to               orthodox               monetary               economics:               inflated               dollars               are               worth               less               and               deflated               dollars               are               worth               more.

Deflation               means               that               the               prices               of               goods               and               services               are               going               down               and               so               the               purchasing               power               of               your               dollars               is               going               up.

Traditional               economics               claims               that               deflation               actually               increases               the               value               of               cash               to               its               holder               by               enhancing               its               purchasing               power               in               an               environment               of               declining               prices               (negative               growth               in               the               average               price               level).

Consumers               are               thus               incentivized               to               delay               their               consumption.

If               prices               are               going               down,               why               not               wait               and               purchase               the               same               for               less               later               on?
               In               my               view,               though,               this               is               only               true               in               the               short-term.

It               is               true               that               in               a               deflationary               cycle,               consumers               are               likely               to               delay               consumption               in               order               to               enjoy               lower               prices               later.

But               this               paralysis               in               consumption               is               precisely               what               renders               most               asset               classes               -               including               cash               -               precarious               and               unprofitable               in               the               long-term.
               On               the               policy               level,               deflationary               expectations               (let               alone               actual               deflation)               lead               to               "liquidity               traps":               zero               interest-rates               fail               to               stimulate               the               economy               and               the               monetary               authorities               -               unable               to               reduce               interest               rates               further               -               remain               powerless               with               their               ammunition               depleted.

This               means               that               cash               balances               and               fixed-term               deposits               in               banks               yield               no               interest.

But,               even               zero               interest               translates               into               a               positive               yield               in               conditions               of               deflation.

Theoretically,               this               fact               should               be               enough               to               drive               most               people               to               hold               cash.
               Yet,               what               economists               tend               to               overlook               is               transaction               costs:               banks               charge               account               fees               that               outweigh               the               benefits               of               possessing               cash               even               when               prices               are               decreasing.

Only               in               extreme               deflation               is               cash               with               zero               interest               a               profitable               proposition               when               we               take               transaction               costs               (bank               fees               and               charges)               into               account.

But               extreme               deflation               usually               results               in               the               collapse               of               the               banking               system               as               deleveraging               and               defaults               set               in.

Cash               balances               and               deposits               evaporate               together               with               the               financial               institutions               that               offer               them.
               Moreover:               deflation               results               in               gross               imbalances               in               the               economy:               delayed               consumption               and               capital               investment               and               an               increasing               debt               burden               (in               real,               deflation-adjusted               terms)               adversely               affect               manufacturing,               services,               and               employment.

Government               finances               worsen               as               unemployment               rises               and               business               bankruptcies               soar.

Sovereign               debt               (government               bonds)               -               another               form               of               highly-liquid,               "safe"               investment               -               is               thus               rendered               more               default-prone               in               times               of               deflation.
               Like               inflation,               deflation               is               a               breakdown               in               the               consensus               over               prices               and               their               signals.

As               these               are               embodied               in               the               currency               and               in               other               forms               of               debt,               a               prudent               investor               would               stay               away               from               them               during               periods               of               economic               uncertainty.

At               the               end,               and               contrary               to               the               dicta               of               current               economic               orthodoxy,               both               deflation               and               inflation               erode               purchasing               power.

Thus,               all               asset               classes               suffer:               equity,               bonds,               metals,               currencies,               even               real-estate.

The               sole               exception               is               agricultural               land.

Food               is               the               preferred               means               of               exchange               in               barter               economies               which               are               the               tragic               outcomes               of               the               breakdown               in               the               invisible               hand               of               the               market.
               Q.

What               can               consumers               do               to               protect               themselves               from               deflation               and               inflation,               on               an               investment               level               as               well               as               in               the               broader               economy?
               A.

Inflation               increases               the               state's               revenues               while               eroding               the               real               value               of               its               debts,               obligations,               and               expenditures               denominated               in               local               currency.

Inflation               acts               as               a               tax               and               is               fiscally               corrective,               but               without               the               recessionary               and               deflationary               effects               of               a               "real"               tax.

Thus,               inflation               is               bad               for               government               bonds               and               deflation               increases               their               value               (lowers               their               yields).

Inflation-linked               bonds,               though,               are               a               great               investment               at               all               times,               even               with               minimal               deflation.
               Inflation               also               improves               the               lot               of               corporate               -               and               individual               -               borrowers               by               increasing               their               earnings               and               marginally               eroding               the               value               of               their               debts               (and               savings).

It               constitutes               a               disincentive               to               save               and               an               incentive               to               borrow,               to               consume,               and,               alas,               to               speculate.

"The               Economist"               called               it               "a               splendid               way               to               transfer               wealth               from               savers               to               borrowers."               So,               inflation               is               good               for               equity               markets               in               the               short               to               medium               term,               while               deflation               has               exactly               the               opposite               effect.
               The               connection               between               inflation               and               asset               bubbles               is               unclear.

On               the               one               hand,               some               of               the               greatest               fizz               in               history               occurred               during               periods               of               disinflation.

One               is               reminded               of               the               global               boom               in               technology               shares               and               real               estate               in               the               1990's.

On               the               other               hand,               soaring               inflation               forces               people               to               resort               to               hedges               such               as               gold               and               realty,               inflating               their               prices               in               the               process.

Inflation               -               coupled               with               low               or               negative               interest               rates               -               also               tends               to               exacerbate               perilous               imbalances               by               encouraging               excess               borrowing,               for               instance.
               Deflation               is               kind               to               cash               and               cash-equivalents               (e.g.,               fixed-term               deposits               and               CDs),               but               only               in               the               short-term.

In               the               long-term               it               has               an               adverse               effect               on               all               asset               classes               (see               what               happened               in               Japan               in               the               1990s)               with               the               exception               of               agricultural               land.






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